Peter Obi is Potentially A Kingmaker But Not A King Just Yet + Why You must Make Your Vote Count In 2023

The danger of emotive voting as against strategic voting in 2023 has the potential of shifting our political paradigm in Nigeria quite significantly.

We must know that in Nigeria, we cannot cry, wish, or conjure change to happen, the sort of change Nigeria needs is one we must all consciously, strategically and deliberately bring upon our nation.

I have seen the intensity of the social media campaign for a Peter Obi presidency especially since we now know the flag bearers of the two most disliked but ironically most supported political parties in our nation. Let’s be real and stop these emotional outbursts and political tantrums. The reality of today is that no president of this nation will emerge from any other political party other than the APC or the PDP. At least for now!

Angry as you may be with this reality, your anger will not change the current price if a “Kongo of rice”. I am not in any way disdainful or disrespectful of your desire but we cannot all continue to build castles in the air and expect to live in them, they are but a fragment of our ambitious or perhaps our grandiose thoughts.

The fact that we were stuck between picking Jonathan and Buhari and now Atiku and Tinubu aren’t results that are necessarily shocking, that situation then and this situation now are fait accomplis. Take it or leave it, these are our real options, the ones our overwhelmingly financially induced delegates have picked for us.

Although one must say that the landslide victory won by Asiwaju Tinubu was a result of a combination of financial inducement and genuine vote from their conscience and sentiment for a southern candidate. My campaign prior to these political party primaries was always that Nigeria certainly cannot survive another Northern President taking over from the current one.

The fact that Peter Obi had a need to cross carpet to a party outside of the two mentioned above to clinch his presidential ticket should already tell a discerning political mind that much as the former governor fits the ideal demographic, character and our other desired parameters for our nation’s presidency, it is a collective regret we must all share that such a beautiful desire isn’t attainable today given our current realities.

The truth is bitter, but I will say it here, Peter Obi, except through an act of God Almighty cannot become Nigeria’s President in 2023. However, he will more than likely be the one who decides who becomes President. The East of Nigeria will have to decide, in whose hands they feel safer, the West or the North?

Politicians and people from the east have never managed to present a united front. The voting patterns from the PDP primaries and subsequently the APC’s should have revealed to any astute and observant political student that the East, in spite of the shameful and sometimes deliberate marginalisation of that region by those who have held power forever, has not thought of putting its house in order.

Go back and check the breakdown of who voted for whom at those primaries, there were governors who could not bring back the same number of delegates they took to Abuja. Unfortunately, the leadership of our nation that that region rightly deserves today and not tomorrow will not be served on a platter. It must be fought for through high-level political manoeuvrings, negotiations, strategizing and generous concessions when required.

My worry? Labour Party really isn’t a strong enough third force in our political equation in Nigeria to threaten the two established parties. Who are Obi’s allies in the North who will be bold enough to take a chance on him? I would really love for him to shake the table well enough to effect desired change in our nation but can that really happen? If he could not do that from inside his former party the PDP, can he convince Northern Nigeria to vote for him? I do not think so.

Will his own in the Southeast most especially vote for him overwhelmingly? Will the South-South back him? Is he capable of swaying voters in the Southwest who are already fed up of the current political establishment in that region? There is a humongous storm of political danger in the offing. Peter Obi could end up as the inadvertent kingmaker and I think the candidate who will suffer from his emergence from the labour party will more than likely be the Southern candidate Asiwaju Tinubu who has now emerged from the APC.

Clearly, Asiwaju Tinubu has now established his capacity to reasonably share a chunk of loyalist votes with Atiku from the north going by the overwhelming support he enjoys from the northern governors.

More than likely, Peter Obi will take a large chunk of Asiwaju’s potential voters in Southern Nigeria who will probably switch to voting Labour party as an alternative thereby edging the PDP candidate Atiku Abubakar towards his presidential dream. Let me be very clear once again, the East will determine who wins this election with Peter Obi as its arrowhead, so, they must decide who they would rather be in bed with, the North or the West.